Foolish Certainties

I am amazed by those who are certain about the future  . . about other people’s motivations, about the way the world works . . . and therefore know what’s best for everyone, everywhere, forever.  Experience has taught me to be wary of such certainty, for the simple reason that we can all be wrong and we can all make poor decisions.  Judgement is defined as the ability to make considered decisions or form sensible opinions and is always open to human error.

 

So in an uncertain world how do we go about making considered decisions and forming sensible opinions.  The starting point is having the humility to accept that we may be wrong, and to ensure that when we are wrong the consequences are acceptable.

 

Some people call this risk management, or scenario testing, or investment appraisal.  All of these are fundamentally about ensuring that the decisions we take are the right decisions, even when they are wrong. Warren Buffett, one of the richest people in America, only invests in companies that can be run by fools – because one day they will be.   We owe it to ourselves to design buildings that outlive, outlast, and outperform foolish certainties.